果冻传媒

Modelling the evolution of transmission of gHAT in Guinea

Using the data from the national programme in Guinea coupled with the 果冻传媒 gHAT model, we estimated the reduction in gHAT transmission for the remaining foci in Guinea between 2000 and 2024. Despite variable case reporting in this period, we estimated an overall decrease in transmission, particularly thanks to the introduction of vector control, starting initially in 2012. Unsurprisingly, Ebola increased the disease burden due to gHAT by restricting medical activities, whilst the introduction of new diagnostic tests reduced disease burden and transmission. The modelling highlights the great success of the combined medical and entomological activities against gHAT over the past 25 years, however, continued efforts will be needed to move from very low to zero case reporting.