果冻传媒

• Scientists at the Institute of Digital Healthcare, WMG and 果冻传媒 Medical School, at the 果冻传媒, have analysed mortality statistics in the UK during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, by analysing the weekly national mortality statistics over the last five years including the subgroup of respiratory mortality rates
• They found there were fewer deaths recorded from the end of December 2019 until the end of March 2020 in comparison to the previous five years, including in the subgroup assessment of respiratory mortality rates
• The researchers describe a SARS-CoV-2 Paradox that resulted in a lower death rate during the early stages of the pandemic in comparison to previous years, perhaps due to government enforced social distancing introduced in the middle of March.
• Some had already engaged with social distancing before a formal lockdown, and precautions such as more hand washing, lead to a reduction in the mixing of those with infectious diseases including, but not exclusive of, SARS-CoV-2

An analysis of national weekly mortality rates between December 2019 – March 2020, compared to the same period for the previous five years, by researchers at WMG and WMS, 果冻传媒, has shown that there have been fewer deaths registered this year during the lead up to the Covid-19 pandemic. Researchers have called this the SARS-CoV-2 Paradox - which could be due to early social distancing measures.

Researchers from the Institute of Digital Healthcare, WMG and 果冻传媒 Medical School, at the 果冻传媒, have analysed the mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality figures.

They did this by carrying out a retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the previous 5 years, including subgroup assessment of respiratory mortality rates, from the end of November until the end of March.

The analysis found that during the first months of 2020, when the early phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic was apparent in the UK, there were consistently fewer deaths each week compared with the previous five years.

However, such a pattern has not been seen in the previous five years of data, researchers coined this the SARS-CoV-2 Paradox, and propose the reason why the death rate was lower during the early stages of the pandemic in comparison to previous years could be due to social distancing, as whilst the government enforced social distancing in the middle of March, some had already engaged with this, especially higher risk groups/elderly, leading to a reduction in the mixing of those with infectious diseases including, but not exclusive of, SARS-CoV-2.

It could also be due to the emphasised importance of washing hands, staying home when you feel unwell and coughing or sneezing into a tissue, this is likely to reduce the number of cases of other infectious disease and, also, slow the spread of various infectious diseases. Finally, iatrogenic mortality may be reduced, as hospital admission numbers have reduced; and there may thus be a reduction in the spread of hospital-acquired infections, such as methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Similarly, reductions in elective surgery (in order to prepare intensive care and hospital bed capacity) may result in fewer iatrogenic deaths.

The graph shows week 12, the 20^th March there was an increase in deaths, with 2020 deaths being 10,645, and previous 5 year mean to be 10,573, this could be related to covid-19, as symptoms such as headaches and loss of taste weren鈥檛 identified, however it could also be attributed to closed GPs, an overwhelmed A&E and ITUs being increasingly selective about which patients to take as lockdown was formally announced that week.

Professor Theo Arvanitis, from the Institute of Digital Healthcare at WMG, 果冻传媒 comments:
鈥淓ach year, infectious diseases make a significant contribution towards avoidable deaths in England and Wales. People with multi-morbidities are at particular risk, and this is a key area of research for the Institute of Digital Healthcare. Social distancing measures are likely to impact the spread of all infectious diseases, despite their target being a reduction in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. This lack of disease spread could be causing a reduction in death rate. Another factor could be concerns around the virus, which could mean people are making more conscious health decisions in terms of eating, exercise, reducing smoking and resting, when they feel unwell, or seeking advice from 111 about their symptoms.

鈥淚t is important to note that whilst we have seen a reduction in mortality in the 鈥榬un-up鈥� to seeing the full extent of SARS-CoV-2 that this may also have negative future consequences. It is possible that we may see a significant rebound if this mortality has simply been delayed rather than avoided in its entirety. If a rebound affect is seen, this may coincide with the peak demand for SARS-CoV-2 medical beds, creating an even greater healthcare need.

鈥淥verall, this stresses the need for careful ongoing observation and exploration of these mortality trends. This assessment must take account not just of the SARS-CoV-2 peak, but also the time period prior to, and following the pandemic.鈥�

• 鈥楨ngland and Wales Mortality Statistics: The SARS-CoV-2 Paradox鈥� is published in the Journal of International Medical Research, DOI:

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22 June 2020

NOTES TO EDITORS

High-res images available at:

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Caption: Professor Theo Arvanitis, Institute of Digital Healthcare, WMG, 果冻传媒

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Caption: Deaths rates in England and Wales: comparing deaths between December 2019 and March 2020 to death rates over the same period in the previous 5 years.

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Caption: Possible mechanisms for reducing all-cause mortality.

For Press enquires please contact:

Peter Thorley, Media Relations Manager (果冻传媒 Medical School), Peter.Thorley@warwick.ac.uk, 07824 540863

OR

Lisa Harding, Head of Marketing and Communications (WMG), Lisa.Harding@warwick.ac.uk, 07824 540845

The UK Government has announced that it will switch its contact-tracing app to a model based on technology by Apple and Google. Professor Carsten Maple, of WMG at the 果冻传媒, discusses the impact that this might make to public confidence in the app.

Professor Maple is Professor of Cyber Systems Engineering and recently led research that showed that the UK public wants the NHS to be the controlling body in the Covid-19 contact-tracing app.

Professor Maple said: 鈥淭he Government changing their stance on the architecture is a significant development. It is worrying that the Government feel they cannot create an app which could, by its own assessment, have a significant impact on controlling the pandemic, without relying on the support of the major tech companies. We should recall that the early versions of apps in other countries could not avail themselves of this Apple and Google capability, but were still effective in controlling the virus. It will be interesting to see how the Government will now attempt to gather the data that they said was so important to control the pandemic, and worth the privacy intrusions that arose in their abandoned version, now that they are taking this new route. This, in itself, could erode confidence in any app that is released."

Dashcams are vital for helping police investigate car incidents, however the way the footage is submitted to police, managed and processed can cause problems. A researcher at WMG, 果冻传媒 has assessed seven different types of dashcams鈥� SD storage systems to see how they help and hinder digital forensics.

Many cars now have dashcams, an in-vehicle mountable camera which records video and audio footage of journeys. They have significant evidential value in digital forensics as they provide GPS data, temporal data, vehicular speed data, audio, video and photographic images.

In the paper, published in the paper Forensic Science International: Digital Investigation, Dr Harjinder Lallie, from WMG, 果冻传媒 explores two aspects of dashcam evidence: the problems related to the management and processing of dashcam evidence, and an analysis of artefacts generated by dashcams.

WMG is proud to be supporting the #1OfTheMillion Day (Wednesday 10^th June).

The WISE campaign celebrates the one million women who are now working in core STEM roles across the UK.

奥惭骋鈥檚 Executive Chair Margot James commented: 鈥� We need a positive plan to tackle the under-representation of women, people of colour and all minorities in our sectors. Industry needs a boosted pipeline of under-represented groups to feed the growing number of STEM roles.

鈥� During my time in government we analysed how behavioural insights might help us understand the career choices for young women, and women entering the workforce, in making decisions that鈥檚 leading them away from STEM subjects in school and from tech careers.

鈥� A diverse workforce, at all levels in an organisation, can improve a company鈥檚 bottom line and they are more likely to outperform their competitors financially. So, I am delighted that there are now one million women leading the way in STEM careers which is so essential for the continued success of our economy.鈥�

Read more about the women working in STEM at WMG here.

路 The study by WMG, 果冻传媒 and Blue Yonder examines how retailers have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure their survival

路 The report highlights many points, particularly the need for human intervention as existing processes couldn鈥檛 keep up with changes in the markets

路 Going forward future systems will need to be more robust and responsive, to increase speed and agility in the supply chain

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the retail sector, a new study by WMG, 果冻传媒, and Blue Yonder has examined how retailers have responded to the situation. The study identified the human vulnerabilities across the supply chain and the need for future investment in flexibility, visibility and automation to improve future resilience.

Retailers have faced multiple challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. Retailers have experienced a combination of unprecedented demand for some particular products whilst no demand for others. Many stores have been forced to close, or adapt their operations to accommodate social distancing. Where possible, there has been a shift to online shopping, but this is not always possible and presents its own operational challenges.

The study gathered insights from 105 different retailers from Europe, Asia and the Americas who offered a glimpse into their survival and navigation of the COVID-19 crisis.

The study found that:

路 The majority (61%) of retailers used inventory to buffer against the disruption of COVID-19. Supply chain processes and systems were effective, but more than half (58%) of retailers said a high degree of manual intervention was required to respond to the fluctuation in demand and supply.

路 Workforce issues were dominant issues for retailers with 59% of warehouse and 48% store operatives being affected by quarantine or illness. This often resulted in the closure of online operations and the need to recruit temporary staff.

路 Retailers were polarised in their treatment of supplier payments, with 37% delaying payments and 30% making early payments.

Jan Godsell, Professor of Operations and Supply Chain Strategy at WMG, 果冻传媒, comments:

鈥淯sing inventory to buffer against the disruption of COVID-19 was the most common strategy deployed by retailers. This provides the greatest certainty of supply but comes at a cost. In contrast, only just over a quarter (29%) of retailers relied on suppliers with more agile manufacturing and distribution networks, which is a potentially more resource efficient and resilient response.

鈥淲ith 75 to 80% of products seeing a demand fluctuation, retailers were slightly better at responding to decreases rather than increases in demand. Whilst retailers found that their supply chain processes and systems to be effective in responding to the demand fluctuations, many were still dependent on the human touch.

鈥淔rom warehouse and store operatives being affected by quarantine or illness to an over-dependence on human intervention within supply chain planning, COVID-19 has highlighted the human vulnerabilities across retail supply chains.鈥�

Wayne Snyder, Vice President Retail Strategy, EMEA at Blue Yonder, comments:

鈥�Early indications in Asia show that customers have been most supportive of those retailers they deemed to have responded best to the crisis and we鈥檇 expect that pattern to follow across Europe and the US. A critical learning for retailers is the need to invest in creating supply chains with greater flexibility, visibility and automation. Here technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning will play a key role in helping retailers navigate future disruption, whilst still meeting customers鈥� expectations.鈥�

The survey was administered on-line by Qualtrics in late April 2020. It was targeted at senior executives in retail supply chains, in Europe, Asia and the Americas. 105 responses were received with relatively equal distribution across the regions.

High-res images are available at:

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Professor Jan Godsell, WMG, 果冻传媒

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Caption: Bar chart displaying what new actions have been taken by retailers in response to the covid-19 crisis. Credit: WMG, 果冻传媒

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Caption: Bar chart displaying what has proven to be retailer鈥檚 most effective strategy for supply chains when dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic. Credit: WMG, 果冻传媒

/services/communications/medialibrary/images/june2020/covid_graph_3.png Caption: Graph showing what change in demand retailer鈥檚 supply has experienced. Credit: WMG, 果冻传媒

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Caption: Bar Chart displaying the bottlenecks retailers have experienced in the supply chain. Credit: WMG, 果冻传媒

The Prof. Lord Bhattacharyya building, home of the National Automotive Innovation Centre, based at the 果冻传媒, has been shortlisted in the RIBA West Midlands regional awards.

For 50 years the RIBA awards and prizes for buildings have championed and celebrated the best architecture in the UK and around the world, no matter the form, size or budget.

The National Automotive Innovation Centre is a partnership between WMG, 果冻传媒, Jaguar Land Rover, and Tata Motors, and is the largest of its kind in Europe and is well timed, arriving when a global mobility revolution is underway, with a new age for transport mobility.

A beacon for automotive research it brings together the brightest minds from industry and academia, to develop future vehicles and mobility solutions. It is home to up to 1,000 staff working across design, engineering and research, as well as future engineers on degree programmes.

Designed by Cullinan Studios the brief for the Centre was for simplicity and strength of purpose, turning a complex assembly of spaces into an immediately legible building.

One of 11 building shortlisted in the West Midlands, see the full list

The National Automotive Innovation Centre is a 拢150m investment between WMG, Jaguar Land Rover, and Tata Motors with 拢29.5m funding from the UK government鈥檚 UK Research Partnership Investment Fund through Research England, which includes the development of an Advanced Propulsion Research Laboratory.

奥惭骋鈥檚 Outreach Team, with support from the WMG centre HVM Catapult staff, have been helping children with fun and creative STEM activities to help with home schooling.

With schools currently closed, the Team have been working hard to create educational resources highlighting the value of engineering for children of all ages.

WMG Outreach Project Officer, Dr Phil Jemmett, has also taken part in the last two Global Science Shows, an initiative that brings together science activities and experiments from all over the world, live on Twitter.

In the first show, Phil demonstrated three separate science experiments, exploring density and floating, using 3D printed parts in just two minutes. In the Phil showcased the classic bottle rocket launch! However this time, instead of using a cork to hold back the pressure, the launcher used a rupture disk which acts as an important safety feature on some industrial equipment.

Why Outreach?

鈥�Coventry and the wider Midlands has a proud engineering history – take Sir Frank Whittle as an example. Hearsall Common features a plaque paying homage to a moment in history when Frank, as a child, saw a plane land on that field. He went on to pioneer the jet engine, receive a knighthood, give lectures at NASA and be voted amongst the top 100 Britons of all time. Quite the list of achievements! But each great journey starts with one small step, and the motivation to take that step,鈥� explains Phil.

He adds: 鈥淎t WMG, we take part in inspiring and amazing work that deserves to be shared and spread to young people in the area. The power of our research to inspire and motivate the next generation of children, by giving them an experience just like Sir Frank鈥檚 watching the plane land at Hearsall Common, is immense. While the demonstrations in the Global Science Show videos are only small we are not aiming to invent the next jet engine with each one – we are hoping to provide the spark that kindles a burning passion in a young person to succeed in engineering.鈥�

Home schooling support

You can find all the WMG home schooling activities including video demonstrations at and the .

奥惭骋鈥檚 Head of Verification and Validation for Intelligent Vehicles, Dr Siddartha Khastgir, has been re-elected to the Council.

The results were announced at the Institute鈥檚 AGM on Wednesday (27^th May).

Dr Khastgir said: 鈥淚 am excited and honoured to be re-elected to the IMechE Council of Members. As a society, and as an Institution, we are in a critical juncture, and it is important to ensure that we re-think the future of the engineering profession. We need to be creative in our new approaches -addressing the challenges of education and manufacturing which the pandemic has highlighted.

鈥淚 have volunteered at the Institution for over 11 years now, and I am honoured to be given this opportunity, by wider IMechE membership, to be part of this journey and work with fellow Council members and IMechE Trustees.鈥�

奥惭骋鈥檚 Associate Professor, Mairi Macintyre, is hosting a series of special 'Lunch with鈥�' seminars, during May and early June, where she'll be chatting to senior leaders from academia and industry.

The prestigious line-up includes experts from a mix of sectors including aerospace, engineering, entertainment, energy, finance, travel and education. Companies represented include Rolls Royce UK, Innovate UK, Hong Kong Disneyland, National Grid, and many more.

The experts will be sharing their insights and experiences of crisis management including their responses to the COVID19 pandemic. They will also share their future predictions and challenges for the recovery period.

Mairi explained: 鈥淚鈥檝e worked at WMG for 20 years and have had the privilege of growing strong, professional and personal friendships with many industry-thought leaders – a privilege I think many of us, working at the 果冻传媒, have and one I felt needed to be shared.

Many of those taking part already speak regularly to students on our Master鈥檚 programme, and also help to inform how the different courses are developed. These insights, reflections and predictions contribute in a meaningful way to the bigger conversations we are all having now as we determine the new normal.鈥�

The 鈥楲unch with鈥︹�� episodes are broadcast live to the 果冻传媒 community, with recordings then added to 奥惭骋鈥檚 You Tube channel .

The public have massive trust in the NHS, who should have control and access to data in the Covid-19 contact-tracing app, according to new research by researchers in WMG at the 果冻传媒, and at the University of Birmingham.

Carsten Maple, Principal Investigator of the NCSC-EPSRC Academic Centre of Excellence in Cyber Security Research and lead for the Cyber Security Global Research Priority said:

"With all of the possible design choices for a contact-tracing app, many commentators and experts have argued which approach is in the best interests of the public. For example, some have argued that centralised apps create privacy invasions that are unacceptable; others have argued that to be effective the apps should be centralised. However, as yet, the opinions of the public have not been gathered and so we have undertaken a significant survey to elicit their thoughts. We have examined how important privacy is to them and how willing they are to engage and share information."

Dr Rebecca McDonald, lecturer in experimental economics from the University of Birmingham said:

"The first encouraging results of our study are that only 9.6% of the public always chose to opt out of using the contact tracing apps we described to them. We asked people to express a direct preference between controlling the pandemic or preserving privacy, and we found that over half (57.4%) of participants favoured prioritising controlling the pandemic over privacy, contrasting with around a fifth (20.1%) favouring protecting privacy over controlling the pandemic."

However the most powerful and important result from the survey was the contrasting degrees to which participants trust different agencies or individuals with their data, even when anonymised. The group least trusted to be given access to this data was other app users but by far the most trusted group or organisation was the NHS.

Professor Carsten Maple in WMG at the 果冻传媒 said:

"It is clear that the NHS enjoyed overwhelming trust in terms of access to personal data collected by such apps, even when anonymised. Surprisingly, respondents鈥� choices suggest they would be most concerned about the decentralised approach that protects from Government access to information and instead shares information among other app users. The results indicate that users want a centralised approach, like the one currently being adopted by NHSX.

"Our research clearly shows that the public is broadly supportive of the use of a COVID-19 contact tracing app and would download it in significant numbers, providing the app providers listen to their wishes on who should have access to their data. The NHS is by far the most trusted gatekeeper for that data."

The table below shows in percentage terms how much more willing people are to use an app when their data is shared with different organisations (as in a centralised approach), compared to when it is shared with other app users (as in a decentralised approach).

 The research highlights that people have a strong desire to understand the way a contact tracing app would work, and many respondents said they would need control over what data is shared about them, and who it is shared with, before they would be willing to download the app. Since widespread uptake is needed for the app to be effective, addressing these potential barriers has to be at the heart of any large-scale roll out of the contact tracing app. The appetite is there, but the public need transparency in order to trust, download, and use the app.

The research also found that public would also have concerns about linking proximity data to other data sources. (They were particularly concerned about the linkage of their shopping location from credit/debit cards data. Some also had concerns about practical things like the impact on their phone鈥檚 battery life, or the amount of data the app might need to use.

The researchers surveyed 2,171 members of the UK general population in a nationally representative sample and have published that research in a paper entitled 鈥淪peak for Yourself! Attitudes to contact tracing applications in the context of COVID 19: results from a nationally representative survey of the UK population鈥� at: https://github.com/carstenmaple/SpeakForYourself.
NB the paper has not been peer reviewed but has been published now due to the urgency of the issues it examines.

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