果冻传媒

Research Interests:

• Macroeconomics

• Monetary Economics

• Behavioural Finance

• Text-as-data, NLP, Machine Learning

Working papers:

• Fear, Anger, and the Price of Risk. Job Market Paper.

"This paper asks whether emotions in economic news affect the market price of risk. I combine 9.83 million UK newspaper articles with FTSE 100 returns from 2003 to 2022. I measure daily fear and anger using dictionary word shares and LLM-classified article shares, and proxy the price of risk using a model-motivated mean--variance ratio. I instrument economic-news emotions with matching emotions in non-economic and sports news, and impose a timing structure between news and returns. A one-standard-deviation increase in instrument-predicted dictionary anger raises the price-of-risk proxy by 28.3 per cent of its mean with non-economic-news instruments and by 27.9 per cent with sports-news instruments, implying lower risk appetite."

• Embracing the Future: Tense Patterns and Forward-looking Central Bank Communication Link opens in a new window(with ).

"The temporal framing of central bank communication affects market expectations of future interest rates beyond tone and topical content. We analyse FOMC minutes from 1997 to 2023 using structural topic modelling combined with LLM-based tone analysis and rule-based/dictionary temporal classification. We estimate the effects of forward-looking communication in an event study around FOMC minute releases to isolate revisions in market expectations. We show that the temporal framing of specific topics has shifted market expectations. For example, hawkish forward-looking communication on inflation or asset purchases raises Treasury yields more than contemporaneous or backward-looking communication. We interpret our findings through a model where the private sector learns about the central bank鈥檚 responsiveness to its economic outlook. We argue that communication effectiveness depends not only on what topics are discussed but on how they are temporally framed."

Work in progress:

• "New Neighbours: The Effects of Corporate Relocation on Local Labour Market Expectations (with ).

I have had the pleasure of (co) organising the following seminar series and conferences:

• Macroeconomics and International Economics Workshop

• The 11th 果冻传媒 Economics PhD Conference

• 果冻传媒/Oxford Macro/International Workshop